I hesitate to call them “moderates” because they’re still to the right of most Americans. But they are anti-Trump and anti-MAGA. For this reason, they hold in their hands the future of the Republican Party, as well as the future of the 118th Congress.
By my rough count, there are some 40 Republican Representatives, many from purple districts, who might be willing to vote with Democrats in selecting a Speaker. If they do not do so soon, the MAGA extremists in the House may get their way.
What would that mean? As conditions for getting their votes, the MAGA extremists of the “Freedom Caucus” are demanding—and McCarthy has already consented to, or is on the verge of acquiescing to—the following conditions:
(1) A rule allowing any member to force a vote ousting a speaker. While McCarthy originally indicated he wouldn’t go along with this, as of Thursday morning, he apparently has acquiesced.
(2) McCarthy will also give the Freedom Caucus two and possibly three seats on the powerful House Rules Committee, which oversees the amendment process for the floor. The Freedom Caucus wants to choose their own members for these positions.
(3) A rule allowing the use of spending bills to defund particular programs and fire or reduce the pay of federal officials. The brewing deal with McCarthy includes a promise for standalone votes on each of the 12 yearly appropriations bills, allowing floor amendments to be offered by any lawmaker.
McCarthy has not yet agreed to a pledge to hold votes on a balanced budget, term limits, and more border security, and not to bring to the House floor a bill increasing the debt ceiling. This last pledge would constitute a wildly irresponsible act that would lead to a shutdown of the U.S. government, threaten the full faith and credit of the United States, and endanger the entire economy.
In effect, Trump and the Freedom Caucus would call many of the shots—on committee assignments, investigations (Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, the FBI), and key issues like raising the debt ceiling (they’ll demand that McCarthy refuse, imperiling the credit of the United States and catapulting the nation into an economic crisis).
Does this mean the rest of us have to sit back and allow a tiny minority of extreme rightwing MAGA House Republicans controlled by Donald Trump to hijack congressional Republicans, who in turn will hijack the entire House, and thereby much of Congress?
No.
There is still time for a deal to be struck between the few anti-MAGA Republicans in the House and House Democrats to elect an anti-MAGA Republican as Speaker, someone like Michigan Rep. Fred Upton or Ohio Rep. David Joyce.
What should Dems seek in return for their votes?
A power-sharing agreement similar to the one negotiated in the last Senate, whereby each party gets the same number of seats on all committees.
Friday will be the second anniversary of the attack on the U.S. Capitol. That attack provided a giant exit ramp for Republican lawmakers who wanted to get off the MAGA extremist Trump highway. But few took it.
The midterm elections of 2022 provided another exit ramp, when Republicans saw voters reject the MAGA extremists. Some Republicans have quietly taken it.
The current chaos surrounding the election of a new Speaker provides a third exit ramp. This one may be the last.
If every House Democrat joins them, only six House Republicans could elect the next Speaker. Surely there are six who believe in governing?
Robert Reich is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.