Even after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, it seemed like the Knicks were finally making some forward progress after almost a decade of mediocrity.
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That… hasn’t been the case.
As of March 1, the Knicks are sitting in 12th in the East with a record of 25-36, far from where they were expected to be.
It wasn’t too long ago (Jan. 15) that the Knicks were actually 22-21 on the season, feeling good about themselves riding a three-game win streak.
Since then, they haven’t been able to win two consecutive games and have gone on losing streaks of three games (four times), four games (once) and five games (once).
So, what has gone wrong in New York, and who is to blame for the Knicks’ underachieving season?
Tom Thibodeau
There’s something to be said about coach Thibodeau’s style and how he likes to stick with the players that he’s comfortable with and trusts. He likes to run his players into the ground, in other words. There isn’t much variation in his nightly starting lineups – with the exception of injury or COVID replacements – and he’ll ride with his first unit even when things aren’t clicking and they’re coughing up big leads.
In February alone, the Knicks have given up a 21-point lead in a loss to the Lakers and a 23-point lead in a loss to the Trail Blazers. Just prior to the All-Star break, they also dropped a home game to a Nets team that was without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving or Ben Simmons and lead by as much as 28 points in the game and 18 points early in the fourth quarter.
With the season all but lost at this point, will Thibs make some changes to the way he assigns minutes?
“You look at everything,” Thibodeau said. “How are we gonna manage this? It has to be merit-based. If a guy is playing good, he plays. If the team is functioning well when he’s on the floor, he should play. That’s the most important thing. The team has to come first for everyone. This can’t be about what’s best for any one individual. It’s what’s best for the group. That’s the way it has to be.”
Julius Randle
Randle has gone from being the Prince of New York last season – earning his first All-Star selection, making the All-NBA second team and leading the Knicks to a top-four see – to a wildly inconsistent year in 2021-22.
Randle’s numbers in the seven games leading to the All-Star break were superb – averaging 29.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, 6.3 assists – but that hasn’t been the story over the course of the season.
Randle’s overall numbers are down from last year.
The difference in his shooting percentages jumps out the most, and it seems like he’s spent more time this season fighting with Knick fans than he has played like the All-Star he was last season.
The Knicks gave Randle a four-year, $117 million contract extension last summer, so unless they find a way to move him on, they’re going to need him to perform at a level that meets his contract’s value.
Knicks front office
Over the years, the Knicks have become known as the team that will give washed up stars that one final payday (err, hello Joakim Noah and Amar’e Stoudemire).
They’ve done a much better job in recent years of trying to minimize those deals, so when the Knicks signed Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier this past summer, the deals were initially lauded as shrewd. But, in true Knicks fashion, that hasn’t been the case.
On the surface, Walker’s deal isn’t bad (two years, $18 million), but things have just not worked out at The Garden for the Bronx native. He’s shown flashes of the form that made him a four-time All-Star, but injuries over the years have taken their toll.
He was taken out of the team’s rotation entirely in late November, but with a lack of available players and the team going 3-7 without him, he returned as a starter after a three-week absence.
In the six games right after he returned, he not only exploded for 44 points in a game but also recorded a historic triple-double on Christmas Day before an injury sidelined him once again.
However, it has now gotten to the point where Walker has been shut down for the season.
Fournier, too, has been a disappointment. The franchise gave Fournier a four-year, $78 million deal, and then tried to trade him not even four months into his Knicks career.
The Knicks tried dealing Walker, Fournier, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel (coincidentally, all Leon Rose moves) at the trade deadline, but they had no takers. They stayed pat, much to the chagrin of Knicks fans.
While the days of the albatross contract may be over, the Knicks’ front office moves still leave many people scratching their heads.
Derrick Rose’s injury
Rose hasn’t played in a game since Dec. 16 with a right ankle injury, and the Knicks have missed his on-court nous as much as anything else this season.
But it isn’t even just the veteran leadership he provides, the Knicks are seven points better per 100 possessions in the plus/minus column when Rose is on the floor. Rose also excels in making defenses collapse and he had become a serviceable 3-point shooter, too.
Prior to his injury, he was making 3s at a clip of 40.2 percent – good for the second-best percentage of his career.
Since losing Rose, the Knicks haven’t had anyone who can break down defenses to create scoring opportunities the way he does, or even just have the luxury of a point guard who can orchestrate Thibs’ offense.
Defense
Tom Thibodeau transformed the Knicks’ defense last season. In 2020-21, the Knicks had the fourth (yes, FOURTH) best defensive rating in the league (107.8). This season, that number has dropped to 110.5, good for 16th in the NBA.
The biggest drop-off has been the team’s ability to guard the 3-point shot this season.
New York is giving up 13.0 3-point makes on 37.6 attempts per game, which ranks 22nd and 26th in the NBA, respectively.
Ironically, this is essentially the same lineup that the Knicks had last season, except they’ve even returned one of their best defenders in Mitchell Robinson, who missed most of last season with an injury.
So much of Thibodeau’s style is predicated on defense – dating back to his time as an assistant on the Celtics’ 2008 championship team – that it really is a shock to the system to see the Knicks struggling so much on that end of the floor.
