Aaron Rodgers ranks 26th in the NFL with a 39.8 QBR. Injuries to receivers Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb have made it tough for the unit to adjust to life without star receiver Davante Adams. Rookie receiver Romeo Doubs has struggled with inconsistency and drops. The offensive line has been reshuffled because of injuries. The end result is an offense that averages 18.3 points per game.
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Rodgers knows what that means, too.
“This week, nobody is going to give us a chance; going to Buffalo on Sunday Night Football,” Rodgers said after Green Bay’s Week 7 loss to Washington. “A chance to get exposed. It might be the best thing for us.”
Will Green Bay have a better chance by committing to a more run-oriented offense? That has been the question asked since Adams left for Las Vegas. The offense needs to revolve around running back Aaron Jones and sidekick A.J. Dillon. Jones in particular, needs more carries.
Jones did get 17 touches in Week 7, but that included nine receptions. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur said afterward that the goal is to get Jones more involved.
“We’re going to try to get him the ball, but we need more plays,” LaFleur said afterward. “We need more opportunities.”
The Packers need to run the ball more — especially in a certain in-game situation.
Packers’ 2022 running game stats
Aaron Jones leads the Packers with 77 carries for 432 yards (5.5 yards per carry). A.J. Dillon has 77 carries for 301 yards (3.9 yards per carry). The two have combined for two rushing touchdowns.
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Jones has more yards this season than he had through seven games last season. He had 404 on 89 carries, with two TDs, at this point in 2021. Dillon had 231 yards on 52 carries at this point last season (4.4 yards per carry), with no TDs. The combined carries and yardage has, in fact, gone up, and they remain active in the passing game with a combined 39 receptions on 53 targets.
Are the Packers running the ball enough?
They haven’t during their current three-game losing streak. Green Bay averaged the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL the past three weeks (17.3) and was 31st in rushing yards in that stretch (64.0 per game). The only team with fewer rushing yards in Weeks 5-7 was the Buccaneers (63.3 per game). So when you read about the decline of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, this is part of the problem.
Look at the difference in per-game rushing production for Jones and Dillon in wins and losses.
This is a clear indication that the offense runs through Jones and it’s a good idea for the Packers to try to get both backs double-digit carries every game.
When should the Packers run the ball more?
On third-and-4 or shorter. The Packers have faced third or fourth down with 4 yards or fewer to go 42 times this season, not counting a bad snap that resulted in a turnover against the Jets.
A breakdown of the results of those plays:
Source: ProFootballReference.com
Four of those passing conversions were from defensive penalties. The Packers are throwing 71.4 percent of the time in this situation despite a drastically higher conversion rate on run plays. If there is a situation where Green Bay wants to mix in more runs with Jones and Dillon, then this might be it.
Breaking down those distances, the Packers are 2 of 2 on third-and-4 runs, 1 of 1 on third-and-3 runs, 2 of 4 on third-and-2 runs and 4 of 5 on third- or fourth-and-1 runs.
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So why not run the ball more in those situations? That was the criticism after a third- and fourth-and-2 from the Giants’ 6-yard line in the Week 5 loss. The Packers threw twice while trying to score the game-tying touchdown. Doubs also had a drop on fourth-and-1 with 11:27 remaining in the loss to Washington in Week 7.
As for third-and-5? The Packers have passed every time and failed to convert on any of those plays, and that includes Jones’ fumble at the goal line and the pick-six Rodgers threw against the Patriots.
Will the Packers run more against the Bills?
That won’t be easy. The Bills have the league’s top-rushing defense at 76.2 yards allowed per game. But Green Bay cannot afford to abandon the run if it wants to keep up with one of the true Super Bowl contenders of the 2022 season.
It also might help limit possessions for a Josh Allen-led Buffalo offense that averages 29.3 points per game.
As Rodgers said, this game will be good for the Packers. If the offense is embarrassed, then it might be time to commit to the running game more in order to make a postseason run.
While most of the criticism falls on Rodgers and LaFleur, there are no easy fixes until the running game starts clicking. Green Bay won’t have much of a chance at success otherwise.
