Fast forward to Wednesday, and Boston is now 30-27. Despite still being behind the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays in the East, they hold a wild card spot in the American League. They bring a seven-game winning streak into Thursday, and they’re playing an ailing Angels team they’ve passed in the standings like ships in the night.
So what’s behind the turnaround in Boston?
There are the usual suspects. J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts are all hitting over .300 on the year and Devers has 12 home runs. Trevor Story’s bat has shown signs of life after an abominable start. And, if we’re being completely honest, the Red Sox have caught a break schedule-wise.
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The Red Sox are 17-6 in their 23 games since bottoming out in the division, with series against the Astros, Mariners, White Sox, Orioles, Reds, Athletics and now Angels. Boston even lost its five-game set to Baltimore and split the two-game series with the Reds, and yet they still find themselves enjoying their best stretch of the season.
However, it’s more than luck that’s changed for Boston. The Red Sox have had one major catalyst change their fortunes.
Red Sox starting pitchers
Boston manager Alex Cora has rediscovered a love for the starter. The Red Sox bullpen, middle of the road as it’s been, is seeing significantly fewer innings than it did to start the season.
Here’s how the Red Sox rotation (in its current makeup) looked before May 15.
Red Sox pitchers before May 15
Boston didn’t have a single starter going six innings or more through May 15. After, however, things have started to shift.
Red Sox pitchers after May 15
If you remove a brutal start from Eovaldi in which he pitched just 1.2 innings against the Rangers, he’s also averaging just over six innings per start since May 15. The Red Sox have changed the way they do business, and the numbers indicate they’re easing Whitlock into a starter role after moving him from the bullpen early this season.
Boston is asking for more innings out of its starters, and it’s working to this point. Pivetta has been particularly impressive for the Sox, as he has done a terrific job with four straight quality starts after his early-season struggles. Eovaldi has three straight for Boston, and Wacha is coming off a complete game shutout against the Angels.
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Red Sox pitching has three complete games from three different pitchers this year: Wacha, Pivetta and Eovaldi. No other team has more than one on the year.
The Red Sox have 16 quality starts this season, with 11 of those coming since that May 15 date. Heading into Thursday’s game, the Boston starters had posted a 0.23 ERA over their past six — the lowest ERA in a six-game span in Red Sox history since ERA became a tracked stat in 1913.
Red Sox: 2022 trail blazers?
This might signal the start of a trend in MLB. On June 19, MLB teams will have to drop a pitcher from their roster, a date that has been pushed back twice. It was originally supposed to be May 2, then May 30. Boston is setting itself up to be less affected by that change.
The Red Sox are making this effort alongside the Yankees, whose pitchers actively campaigned to throw more innings and are dominating for it. The league is hitting .263 against pitchers the third time through the order. The Red Sox starters are holding teams to a .234 average the third time through. The Yankees, for reference, are at .225.
Teams will need starters to go deeper in games to weather losing that extra pitcher. The Red Sox are trying to head that struggle off altogether.
What could derail the Red Sox?
The Red Sox need more consistency out of their bullpen. They’re tied for 26th in MLB with 10 saves this year and their 45 percent save percentage is the worst in baseball. They don’t have that one pitcher they can trust in a tight spot. Whether it’s a deadline move or finding someone in the system, the Red Sox need to lock that down.
Boston is hoping Hansel Robles can help when he comes back from injury, but that timetable is uncertain.
What about the Red Sox bats?
Boston has scored five or more runs in five of its past seven games, and the Sox have four double-digit run games since May 15 after clocking just one before. Martinez, Bogaerts and Devers have been joined by a hot Christian Vasquez, an improving Alex Verdugo, and Trevor Story. Story is still looking to truly find his groove and achieve consistency at the plate, but the scorching hot week he had in mid-May was an indicator of what he can do.
The Red Sox still have a lot of season left, but they diagnosed some of their problems early and they’re better for it. This team, however, will ultimately go where its rotation goes. The arms are clearly present, but the less they need to lean on their bullpen, the better.
In the meantime, the Red Sox will look to climb up the AL East standings. They undoubtedly aren’t content with sitting in that third wild card spot. Lucky for them, there’s a lot of season left.
